According to the Drewry WCI Index, the container spot freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe rose by 10% compared with before Christmas, reaching US$1,874/TEU. However, export demand to Europe is much lower than usual ahead of the Chinese New Year on January 22, and freight rates are expected to come under pressure again post-holiday as carriers scramble to boost load factors.

In fact, Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, said that given that the index was 19% below its pre-pandemic level in January 2020, the rate hike on the tradeline needs to be put in perspective. “As we move into 2023, it is clear that container market conditions will be very different from 2022,” the analyst said.

Writing for this month’s Baltic Exchange FBX report, Lars Jensen had few words of comfort for ocean carriers. Referring to the possibility of a surge in demand after the current inventory glut ends, he said a rebound in orders would “depend on the depth and duration of the current downturn”. “At best, this surge could happen in the peak season of 2023; at worst, it could be delayed until just before Chinese New Year in early 2024,” Jensen warned.

Meanwhile, container spot rates on the transpacific route were flat this week, for example, Freightos Baltic Exchange (FBX) rates from Asia to US West and US East were little changed at $1396/FEU and $2858/FEU respectively. FEU. Carriers are generally more optimistic about the prospects for demand recovery on the trans-Pacific route compared with the Asia-Europe route, but the outlook after the Chinese New Year remains unclear.

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