The market is too pessimistic, Q3 demand will rebound

Xie Huiquan, general manager of Evergreen Shipping, said a few days ago that the market will naturally have a reasonable adjustment mechanism, and supply and demand will always return to a balance point. He maintains a “cautious but not pessimistic” outlook on the shipping market; The quarter has begun to pick up slowly, and the peak season in the third quarter is still expected; looking forward to the future market situation of global industrial operations, he expects that shipping companies with strong competitiveness will still hand in a profit report card in the first quarter against the trend.

 

Xie Huiquan believes that the shipping volume and freight rate in the ocean freight market have fallen sharply in the first quarter but have bottomed out. Don’t be “surprised” by this quarter. The SCFI index and the freight rate of the North American line have begun to rebound; The peak season in the third quarter can still be expected. Regarding the trend of global freight rates and traffic volume, he maintained the consensus view at the beginning of the year that he was “cautious and not pessimistic.”

 

Evergreen’s combined revenue in March was NT$21.885 billion, a monthly increase of 17.2% and an annual decrease of 62.7%. The accumulated consolidated revenue for the first quarter of this year was NT$66.807 billion, an annual decrease of 60.8%.

 

In response to external concerns that the termination of the 2M alliance agreement may lead to splitting and reorganization of other alliances, Xie Huiquan said that the current product portfolio and cooperation model of the Ocean Alliance, which Evergreen joined, are very harmonious, so even if the 2M alliance is about to end, the Ocean Alliance OA Alliance The impact is not big, and the contract with the Ocean Alliance OA Alliance has been signed until 2027.

 

As for the signing of the long-term agreement, Xie Huiquan pointed out that Evergreen Shipping will still maintain about 65% of the contracts on the US route this year, and the European market will account for 30%. The contracted shipping company will not agree to sign, and it will enter the intensive period of contract renewal and signing in April.

 

Regarding the outlook for the global shipping market, Xie Huiquan further stated that the market is overly pessimistic about this year’s freight rate. The freight rate and cargo volume in the first quarter were indeed weaker than expected, and the freight rate dropped by nearly 80%. The revenue of the three main shipping companies in Taiwan, China, decreased by 60% in the first quarter; the freight rate has been lingering for a while, and the SCFI index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks. The freight rate has slowly rebounded since the second quarter, and the competitiveness is strong Shipping companies have more advantages. If the Russia-Uzbekistan conflict can end early, it will still have a catalytic effect on the recovery of the shipping market.

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Post time: Apr-20-2023