After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a large amount of Ukrainian grain was stranded in Ukraine and could not be exported. Despite Turkey’s attempts to mediate in hopes of restoring Ukrainian grain shipments to the Black Sea, talks are not going well.

The United Nations is working on plans with Russia and Ukraine to restart grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, and Turkey may provide a naval escort to ensure the safe passage of ships carrying Ukrainian grain. However, Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey said on Wednesday that Russia had made unreasonable proposals, such as inspections of ships. A Ukrainian official expressed doubts about Turkey’s ability to mediate the conflict.

Serhiy Ivashchenko, head of UGA, the Ukrainian Grain Trade Union, said bluntly that Turkey, as a guarantor, is not enough to ensure the safety of goods in the Black Sea.

Ivashchenko added that it would take at least two to three months to clear the torpedoes in Ukrainian ports, and the navies of Turkey and Romania should be involved.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously revealed that Ukraine discussed with Britain and Turkey the idea of a third-country navy guaranteeing Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea. However, Zelensky also stressed that Ukraine’s weapons are the most powerful guarantee to ensure their safety.

Russia and Ukraine are the world’s third and fourth largest grain exporters respectively. Since the conflict escalated in late February, Russia has occupied most of Ukraine’s coastal areas, and the Russian navy has controlled the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, making it impossible to export a large amount of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Ukraine relies heavily on the Black Sea for grain exports. As one of the world’s largest grain exporters, the country exported 41.5 million tons of corn and wheat in 2020-2021, more than 95% of which was transported through the Black Sea. Zelensky warned this week that as much as 75 million tons of grain could be stranded in Ukraine by the fall.

Before the conflict, Ukraine could export as much as 6 million tons of grain a month. Since then, Ukraine has only been able to transport grain by rail along its western border or by small ports on the Danube, and grain exports have plummeted to about 1 million tons.

Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio pointed out that the food crisis has affected many parts of the world, and if no action is taken now, it will turn into a global food crisis.

On June 7, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the two main ports in the Sea of Azov, Berdyansk and Mariupol, are ready to resume grain transportation, and Russia will ensure the smooth departure of grain. On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Turkey, and the two sides held talks on the establishment of Ukraine’s “food corridor” on the 8th. Based on the current reports from various parties, consultations on technical issues such as clearing mines, building safe passages, and escorting grain transport vessels are still continuing. 

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