Demand has plummeted! The prospect of international logistics is worrying

Recently, the sharp drop in U.S. import demand has caused a stir in the industry. On the one hand, there is a large backlog of inventory, and major department stores in the United States are forced to launch a “discount war” to stimulate purchasing power. On the other hand, the number of U.S. sea containers has recently plunged by more than 30% to an 18-month low. Consumers are still the victims, as they pay for high prices and save more to prepare for a less-than-optimistic economic outlook. Analysts believe that this is related to the Fed’s start of the interest rate hike cycle, which puts pressure on U.S. investment and consumption, but whether the global trade cost and inflation center will further rise is more worthy of attention.

According to the latest data released by large US retailers recently, Costco’s inventory as of May 8 was as high as 17.623 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 26%. Inventory at Macy’s was up 17% from last year, and the number of Walmart fulfillment centers was up 32%. The chairman of a high-end furniture manufacturer in North America admitted that the terminal inventory in the United States is too high, and furniture customers have reduced purchases by more than 40%. Many other company executives said they will get rid of excess inventory through discounts and promotions, canceling overseas purchase orders, etc. The most direct reason for the above phenomenon is the high level of inflation. Some U.S. economists have long speculated that consumers will experience an “inflation peak” immediately after the Federal Reserve starts its interest rate hike cycle. According to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve, the price level growth rate in most parts of the United States is “robust”. The growth rate of the producer price index (PPI) has exceeded that of the consumer price index (CPI). Nearly half of the regions reported that companies were able to pass on high costs to consumers; some regions also pointed out that they were “resisted by customers”, such as “reducing purchases”. , or replace it with a cheaper brand” etc.

Experts said that the US inflation level not only did not fall substantially, but the secondary inflation has also been confirmed. Earlier, the U.S. CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, breaking a new high. The inflation incentives in the United States have begun to shift from the push of commodity prices to the “wage-price” spiral, and the intensified imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market will lift the second round of inflation expectations in the United States. At the same time, the U.S. economic growth in the first quarter was less than expected, and the recovery of the real economy slowed down. From the demand side, under the pressure of high inflation, private consumption confidence has continued to decline. With the peak of energy use in summer and the rise in prices not peaking in the short term, it may be difficult for US consumer confidence to quickly recover.

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