At the current rate of decline in spot rates, shipping market rates could fall to 2019 levels as early as the end of this year – previously expected by mid-2023, according to a new HSBC research report.

The report’s authors noted that according to the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), which has fallen 51% since July, with an average weekly drop of 7.5%, if the decline continues, the index will fall back to pre-pandemic levels.

HSBC said the recovery of capacity after the holidays would be one of the “key points” in determining “whether freight rates will stabilize soon”. The bank added that potential changes to guidelines, which could be disclosed in liner companies’ third-quarter earnings reports, could provide insight into how successful shipping lines have been with maintenance contracts.

Nonetheless, bank analysts expect that if rates fall to sub-economic levels, shipping lines will be forced to take ‘extreme measures’ and an adjustment to capacity constraints is expected, especially when rates are below cash costs”

Meanwhile, Alphaliner reported that congestion at Nordic ports and two eight-day strikes at Felixstowe, the UK’s largest container port, were not enough to stop SCFI’s China-Nordic business from falling “significantly” by 49% in the third quarter

According to Alphaliner statistics, in the third quarter, 18 alliance loop lines (6 in the 2M alliance, 7 in the Ocean alliance, and 5 in the THE alliance) called at 687 ports in Northern Europe, 140 fewer than the actual number of calls. The consultancy said MSC and Maersk’s 2M alliance fell by 15% and the Ocean alliance by 12%, while THE alliance, which had maintained the most affiliations in previous assessments, fell by 26% over the period.

“It’s not surprising that the Port of Felixstowe had the highest rate of missed Far East Loop calls in the third quarter,” Alphaliner said. The port missed more than a third of its planned calls and missed a double of Ocean Alliance Loop calls. anchored. Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven and Zeebrugge are the main beneficiaries of the transfer call.