With the ups and downs of global trade, the original “hard to find a box” has become a “serious surplus”. A year ago, the largest ports in the United States, Los Angeles and Long Beach, were busy. Dozens of ships lined up, waiting to unload their cargo; but now, on the eve of the busiest shopping season of the year, the two major ports are “bleak”. There is a severe excess of demand.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled 630,231 loaded inbound containers in October, down 26% year-over-year, and the lowest volume of cargo entering the ports since May 2020, media reported Wednesday.

Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles, said there is no longer a backlog of cargo, and the Port of Los Angeles is experiencing its quietest October since 2009.

Meanwhile, supply chain software provider Cartesian Systems said in its latest trade report that U.S. containerized imports fell 13% in October from a year earlier, but were above October 2019 levels. The analysis pointed out that the main reason for the “quiet” is that retailers and manufacturers have slowed down orders from overseas due to high inventories or collapsing demand. Seroka said: “We predicted in May that excess inventory, the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. Despite the peak shipping season, retailers have canceled overseas orders and freight companies have reduced capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas. Almost all companies have large inventories, as reflected in the inventory-to-sales ratio, which is at its highest level in decades, forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.

U.S. consumer demand also continued to weaken. In the third quarter, U.S. personal consumption expenditures grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the previous value of 2%. The consumption of durable goods and non-durable goods remained negative, and service consumption also weakened. As Seroka said, consumer spending on durable goods such as furniture and appliances declined.

Spot prices for containers have plummeted as importers, plagued by inventories, have reduced orders.

The dark cloud of the global economic recession is not only hanging over the shipping industry, but also the aviation industry.